Average Is Awful: What New Consumer Spending Data Signals for 2026

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Average is awful. I worked at Frito-Lay PepsiCo for nearly 10 years, and that line, "average is awful," came from Roger Enrico. So when I got my February data in just a couple of days ago, I was thinking about it, and it really struck me that when I looked at the data just in general, it was kind of unremarkable. But then when we dug into it by region, it starts to tell a story. When we compared it to a year ago, it really tells a story. And what we're seeing is that the data may be actually pointing us to a more favorable consumer sentiment outlook in 2026.

Like I always say, average is awful. So let's dive into that regional data, because there's some really fascinating stories that are happening that you might be feeling in your business today.

When I look at the Midwest, what we're seeing here is the biggest shift from pausing the spending, which is that yellow moving into the green, spending as usual, and that is a very positive sign. However, the caution flag is, look at how high that anxious, very anxious number is. It's 36% so you'll see, versus these other regions, it's actually still really high.

When we look at the Northeast, it's a different story. What you can look at these absolute numbers, and what we're seeing in the Northeast is this movement from being anxious and very anxious into the middle, so they're moving into this pause, which is a good step. And then there's a little bit of movement in that spending as usual. But look at how low that number is in the red. It's significantly lower than what we just saw in the Midwest. And the gap between that red and green is actually pretty small. So if you're in the northeast, maybe things are starting to look a little brighter.

When we look at the data for the South, we can actually see not much has changed. So there was just a slight movement from the anxious and very anxious two points, and then we actually saw positive movement for the green plus two points. But nothing big is happening in the south, and there's still some work to be done there.

So let's look at the West. Something very different is happening here. What we're seeing is that pause, which is that yellow group we actually are seeing, splitting some going down into the anxious, very anxious group, others going up into the spending as usual group. But what I'm also seeing is the red that spending has stopped because I'm anxious, very anxious. It's still pretty high. So if you have businesses in the South and in the West, maybe those businesses are still kind of struggling a little bit.

So when we look at the data, you can see that how consumers are coming out of that pause is different by region. But what I found really interesting is when I looked at the same data, year over year.

So here is the data, February of 26 compared to February of 25. And here's the big deal insight: the gap between the red and the green has shrunk by half. A year ago, that gap was seventeen points between spending as usual and anxious and very anxious, and now it's eight points.

So What? Now What?

As I mentioned, this is a big deal. Historically, as we see that gap shrink, it tends to be a leading indicator of good things to come. So we'll watch to see if this trend holds. But as we move into the spring and out of our winter hibernation, it's a good first signal. Until next time.