“It’s the Gas Prices!” - Is It?

7 hours ago
4 min read

Key Insight: Gas prices will eventually come down. Your value proposition won't fix itself when they do. The brands that thrive are the ones that don't blame the pump and ask harder questions about their own experience. The opportunity is to be the brand they never stopped trusting. Once trust is broken, it's a hard road back.

As we listen to the latest wave of earnings calls, we are hearing far too many executives blaming their business troubles on gas prices.

Stop blaming the gas prices!

Let's decipher the real underlying cause of these lackluster business results.

The Gas Price Sticker Shock Is Only Part of the Story

Rising gas prices are part of the story. But they're not the whole story. And the brands using them as an excuse are missing something much more important.

We've all felt it. You pull up to the pump, watch the numbers spin, and do a little mental math about what you're giving up this week. A dinner out. A trip across town. Maybe a night out with friends.

But the story rising gas prices are telling goes way beyond the pump.

When consumers have less disposable income to spend, and the everyday experiences like dining out cost more than they did before, they reevaluate their priorities and think more about what really feels worth it.

This reevaluation is reshaping where people go, what they spend, and how they feel about experiences altogether.

47% say they are driving less because of high gas prices.

43% say that as gas prices come down, they will participate in activities more.

Nearly half of Americans are essentially in a holding pattern, waiting for relief before they re-engage with their lives. That is a massive amount of pent-up demand sitting just beneath the surface.

Yes - 3 in 4 Consumers Are Changing Their Restaurant Behavior

Yet, remember this is the symptom, not the root cause.

We asked consumers specifically about how rising gas prices have changed their restaurant behaviors over the last three months. 78% of Americans have adapted their restaurant behavior in some way because of gas prices.

Here is how that breaks down:

35% are using restaurants less overall
26% are spending less per visit
23% are selecting closer restaurants so they drive less
23% are leaning into apps, deals, and discounts

This is a layered problem for the restaurant industry. It's fewer visits, less spending per visit, and a shift toward value-driven behavior all happening at once. And proximity is now a competitive advantage, with people literally choosing where to eat based on how far they have to drive.

But the real story emerges when you look beyond restaurants.

It's A Share of Fun Money Battle

We asked consumers whether they've been doing a range of activities more or less often over the past 60 days as a result of rising gas prices. The results paint a pretty clear picture.

Dine in at restaurants is the #1 declining activity — 41% say they are going less often, including 17% who say much less. Retail shopping, night clubs and bars, and entertainment centers are also getting hit hard.

But some activities are actually doing better.

If gas prices were really the core problem, people wouldn't be booking cruises. They're not staying home, they're being choiceful.

Cruises, international trips, and theme and water parks all show more people going than pulling back. These are the big-commitment, high-investment experiences — the ones people have already planned and paid for, or the ones they are treating as bucket-list moments and memories that are worth the cost.

The Root Issue Isn't Gas Prices, It's That the Experience Isn't Worth It

Not Worth It = Fewer Visits

We also asked people to rate whether their most recent experience at each of these activities was worth the money. "Worth It" ratings line up with the more/less behavior data.

At the bottom: dine in at restaurants, retail shopping, nightclubs, and bars. The same categories that are seeing the biggest declines in frequency are also the ones scoring lowest on perceived value.

Big ticket items like trips and cruises are near the top end of the list.

That is the key signal here. Gas prices are eroding the value equation for casual, drive-to outings. When you factor in the cost of gas on top of a dinner tab or a shopping trip, the mental math stops working for a lot of people.

So What? Now What?

STOP BLAMING THE GAS PRICES

Gas prices will eventually come down. Your value proposition won't fix itself when they do. The brands that thrive are the ones that don't blame the pump and ask harder questions about their own experience. The opportunity is to be the brand they never stopped trusting. Once trust is broken, it's a hard road back.

Survey Data Collected: April 2026. N=1000 US consumers. 18+ years old balanced to census.

Lisa W. Miller is a consumer insights researcher, strategist, and founder of LWM Associates. A former VP of Innovation at Brinker International and VP of Insights & Strategy at Frito-Lay/PepsiCo, she has conducted proprietary research on Gen Z, American consumer behavior, and workplace dynamics. Her data has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and across more than 300 media appearances. Her podcast and newsletter, The Business of Joy, explores how leaders and consumers navigate an uncertain world.